This Week in the Holistic Recruiter Club #023
Understanding the Predictors of Job Performance and Cryptic Recruitment Campaigns
Woohoo we reached the first Milestone 100 followers last week and growing quickly! Thank you to all of you who have followed and subsequently messaged afterwards. Now on to 250!
For the rest of this week in the Holistic Recruiter Club!
I had a great catch up with Darren Bush all about a very interesting metric Candidate Wait Time (CWT), and Joe Atkinson - where its always a pleasure to talk TA and Business at the same time. If you don’t know it you should take a look at his TA Training Website Purpl full of great content.
After the Post Christmas Hibernation, the Two Tired Dads awaken from
slumber and planning 2025!
So watch this space…
In the mean time subscribe to our YouTube Channel, where every week we will be releasing video content. Including some snippets from the 9 hour epic we did that raised over 3000€ for SOS Village Enfants.
3 Recruitment Campaigns You May Not Have Seen Before
I’m facinated with how companies attract talent especially when they get creative!
1. GCHQ
GCHQ partnered with LinkedIn, In 2023, GCHQ teamed up with LinkedIn for this campaign. It’s was a very colorful picture with hidden clues designed to attract puzzle lovers and problem solvers. Once you cracked it, sorry IF, you were able to complete it you were taken to a website where you could get in contact and well, If I told you that I would have to kill you 😂 Anyway I liked this, it’s fun, clever, and a perfect fit for their audience.
2. Google
Back in 2004, Google put up a mysterious billboard that simply read:
What I love about this is its not flash, its not implying a job just creates intrigue and the people who would be inetersted in this will be hooked to complete it.
Anyway back then if you managed to solve the puzzle (and it wasn’t easy, not ChatGPT in the public domain then), it led you to a website with even more challenges. And then you had the chance to apply for a job!
I found this very very clever.
3. US Army
In May 2024 the U.S. Army’s “Ghosts in the Machine” campaign is quite scary, I actully felt mesmorised by it when I watched it the first time.
Its weird creepy, but intriguing and the the whole video is filled with haunting imagery, faceless figures, fire, and pulsing cryptic messages. It’s designed to pull in people who thrive on mystery, creativity, and influence.
If you watched it and thought, “Ok, how did they make this?!” Then you’re probably the exact type of person they want for their Psychological Operations unit. The campaign cleverly showcases the power of words and ideas, while quietly asking, “Do you have what it takes to influence the world?”
So if you happen to have a budget the size of the US Army and a specific phycological warfare team get them to help you iwth your next campaign! 👻
Turning Research Into Actions: 7 Part Series of The Most Effective Hiring Process. Part 2/7
Week 2: Understanding the Predictors of Job Performance
Last week, we laid the foundations by going through the history of recruitment, from the Chinese Imperial Examination to modern day structured interviews. Read the article here If you’ve made it this far, you’ve already got the context layer sorted (well done you pat yourself on the back!)
So what really predicts job performance?
It’s a question that has confundled hiring managers and recruiters forever: How do we know who will do well in a role? (this is why people started trying to measure Quality fo Hire) Over time, research has helped us understand, and I think the answers might surprise you.
The Science of Predictors - Yes Science is important, keep reading…
Not all hiring methods are created equal. Some are fortunate to be backed by decades of data, while others fall squarely in the “Joe Bloggs influencer says so” category.
1. Cognitive Ability
Cognitive ability (a fancy term for problem solving and logical reasoning skills) has long been the gold standard for predicting job performance. The meta analyses, basically shows a strong correlation between cognitive ability and success across roles.
Why? Because smart people tend to adapt quickly, learn new skills, and handle complexity better.
But hang on cognitive ability isn’t perfect. While it’s a great predictor for technical and problem-solving roles, it doesn’t capture interpersonal skills or cultural fit. Which leads us to this… ⬇️
2. Structured Interviews
Remember last week we discussed Sackett et al. (2022)? Their research reinforced that structured interviews are actually the strongest predictor of job performance.
Why? They’re consistent, minimise bias, and focus on job-relevant questions.
For example, if you’re we hiring for a customer service role. Instead of asking random questions like, “What’s your greatest strength?” (yawn), you could ask, “Tell me about a time you de-escalated a conflict with a customer. What steps did you take?” Now you’re starting to dig into the skills that matter.
Did tou know Structured interviews can have a predictive validity of 0.51 (Schmidt & Hunter, 1998)
3. Job Specific Assessments
Work sample tests and simulations, where candidates actually perform tasks they’d be doing on the job. They’re highly predictive because they show exactly how someone will perform in a specific context. Remember what we said Context is Key! Always
For example:
Hiring a coder? Give them a coding challenge.
Hiring a marketer? Ask them to critique a real campaign.
Hiring a recruiter? Ask them to create a sourcing strategy.
Work samples are a win-win. Candidates get a sneak peek into the role, and recruiters get clear evidence of capability.
4. Emotional Intelligence or EQ
As roles become more collaborative and cross functional, EQ is gaining traction as a predictor of success. High EQ candidates excel at communication, empathy, and conflict resolution, skills esential in leadership and team based roles. While it’s harder to measure than cognitive ability, tools like situational judgment tests can help.
5. Cultural Fit and Adaptability
More and more research has increasingly highlighted the importance of aligning hires with company culture. It’s not just about hiring people who fit in but also those who can challenge the status quo and drive innovation to challenge. This is where adaptability and values alignment come into play.
“So, which one is best?”
There is not one single predictor.
The most effective hiring processes use a combination of these
Cognitive ability tests for problem-solving potential.
Structured interviews for consistency and fairness.
Job-specific assessments for real-world relevance.
EQ evaluations for interpersonal excellence.
This layered approach should help you get the right people.
Common Hiring Myths
I love calling out BS so here we go
Personality tests like Myers-Briggs are essential.
FALSE: As much as MBTI makes for fun team-building exercises, its predictive power for job performance is about as strong as your star sign. Sorry, Aries.
More interviews = better hires.
FALSE: The law of diminishing returns kicks in after 2-3 interviews. Beyond that, you’re wasting time and risking candidate fatigue.
Gut feeling beats data.
FALSE: Gut feelings are just biases in disguise. Stick to the evidence.
Why Did I Choose This For Part 2?
Because getting it right is good all round. So understanding predictive hiring methods helps with reduce turnover, improve diversity of thought, and create fairer opportunities for all. And in a world increasingly driven by AI and data, understanding the human factors behind performance has never been more critical. It will also help you with your predictive models in the future as well as how to start rethinking your hiring process.
Coming Up Next: Week 3
Now that we know what predicts success, the next step is designing a hiring process that puts this stuff we just learned or refreshed on into action. Next week, we’ll explore how to build an optimised selection process that balances efficiency, fairness, and candidate experience.
See you next week!.
Funny of the week
And to end the week and this weeks newsletter I will leave you with this little gem.
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Great newsletter John! And congrats on reaching the 1st hundred subs!